October 2019 – Democratic Primary

(Picture: BUSINESS INSIDER)

BY DANIEL WRIGHT-MASON, Editor-In-Chief

As another month draws to a close for the packed Democratic primary, let’s recap on the current standings.

October dem polling

(Picture, RealClearPolitics)

 

Shown above is the combination of polling taken in October 2019, of all Democratic candidates. Whilst it may look initially cluttered, it shows a few clear trends

  • Elizabeth Warren has continued her rise from September, to put herself firmly in the running with the likes of Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders.
  • The primary is quickly becoming a three-horse race, with two thirds of the overall vote lying with just three candidates, with the last third being split amongst thirteen.
  • Biden’s support wavers, but continues to hold despite continual gaffs and attacks by political opponents.

 

Octobers Winners

Elizabeth Warren – As mentioned previously, Warren continues to rise in the polls, overtaking her ‘progressive’ ally Bernie Sanders to claim the number two spot for October. After another strong performance in the monthly debate, Warren has continued to grow her public image, receiving more attention with her continually outspoken policies such as the ‘wealth tax’. She has been dubbed by many to be the ‘safer’ candidate to Bernie Sanders, with many mainstream media and ‘moderate’ sources seeming to begin to cut adrift from Joe Biden, and move more towards Elizabeth Warren. In many ways she is now the person to beat, but without the support of the Democratic establishment of Joe Biden, or the grassroots support of Bernie Sanders, this race is far from a coronation for the Massachusetts Senator.

Pete Buttigieg – The month of October has seen North Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg arguably distinguish himself from the ‘best of the rest’ in the Democratic pack, moving up to fourth place in the months polling. His apparent campaign strategy of focused funding into early primary states seems to be working in some instances, with some polls showing him even breaking into the top three in states like Iowa. However, despite a good showing in October, ‘Mayor Pete’ still vastly trails any of the top three candidates in national polling, and with the mainstream media already eyeing up Elizabeth Warren as their new darling, this could very well be the peak for Buttigieg.

 

Octobers Losers

Joe Biden – Another month, and another slight decline for former Vice President Joe Biden, with the pattern of gradual decline in his numbers once again repeating itself. Having to defend accusations of corruption surrounding his son Hunter, he once again was the target of attacks by almost all other candidates during the debate, as well as the President, who gave a typical Trump Twitter rant on the subject. Despite this, Biden’s numbers continue to hold for now, and the recent endorsement from former DNC chair and tenured Senator Chris Dodd shows that the game is not over yet for Joe Biden.

Kamala Harris – Since her head turning performance in the first Democratic debate, Kamala Harris has not seen her campaign take off the way she may have hoped. After making headlines from her attacks on Joe Biden’s record on segregation, the Californian Senator was immediately put on the back foot by Hawaii’s Tulsi Gabbard, who flipped the script to attack the senators own record on criminal justice reform. The Harris campaign doesn’t seem to have recovered from this set back, with lows of three and four percent being polled during the month of October. This, mixed with the growing popularity of Pete Buttigieg, a candidate of similar political ilk, it could be suggested that the Harris campaign may be doomed.

 

Octobers Mixed Bag

Bernie Sanders – A special category was required to document the turbulent month for the Vermont Senator. Firstly, the Sanders campaign was thrown into disarray after Sanders suffered a heart attack on the campaign trail. This led to some dropping in polling numbers, and an immediate break to the Bernie tour of America. However, despite many gleeful predictions from many in the media, Sanders has seen a remarkable bounce back. This came primarily in the form of a very high-profile endorsement from rising Democratic superstar Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and subsequent record breaking 26,000+ rally in New York City. Following this, the Sanders campaign announced it had raised another record breaking $25.3 million from 1.4 million individual donors in Q3. This turn around from Sanders shows there is still very much a fight left in his campaign, but with Elizabeth Warren arguably gunning for his political lane, and with few friends in the media or democratic establishment, it is hard to tell whether the countries first ‘people’s campaign’ can win enough votes to emerge victorious.

 

 

Polls used

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary-2/

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2019-10/topline_reuters_democratic_debate_poll_10_21_2019_wu.pdf

http://emersonpolling.com/2019/10/22/biden-sanders-warren-maintain-front-runner-status-in-democratic-primary/

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html#polls

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